Papers on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate" and similar term paper topics

Paper #064353 :: Determinants of Total Fertility Rate
Buy and instantly download this paper now

A quantitative analysis and a look at policy alternatives to the achievement of global population stabilization.

Written in 2006; 4,087 words; 9 sources; APA; $ 110.95

Paper Summary:

There has been a polarization of viewpoints on the most effective way to achieve population stabilization. On one hand are advocates of population control - those who believe that only direct interventions to 'control' fertility can slow down population growth. They believe that using coercion to force individuals to restrict family size is entirely justified. The paper shows that, on the other hand, are those who respect the rights and freedoms of individuals to exercise individual choices and act responsibly while making family decisions. They argue that assuring people access to decent healthcare, education and reproductive health choices will significantly reduce unwanted pregnancies and lower birth rates. The paper shows that, from this perspective, enhancing people's capabilities and women's, in particular, is the just way to stabilize a country's population. Caught in the complex web of moral, ethical and social discussions, policy makers and citizens need to have a better understanding of the relation between population growth and well-being of the individuals.
The paper includes many tables.

Paper Outline:
Introduction
World Trends
(1) African Region
(2) South-East Asian Region (SEAR)
(3) Western Pacific Region (WPR)
(4) Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR)
(5) Region of the Americas (AMR)
(6) European Region (EUR)
References and Bibliography

From the Paper:

There has been a polarization of viewpoints on the most effective way to achieve population stabilization. On one hand are advocates of population control-those who believe that only direct interventions to 'control' fertility can slow down population growth. They believe that using coercion to force individuals to restrict family size is entirely justified. On the other hand are those who respect the rights and freedoms of individuals to exercise individual choices and act responsibly while making family decisions. They argue that assuring people access to decent healthcare, education and reproductive health choices will significantly reduce unwanted pregnancies and lower birth rates. From this perspective, enhancing people's capabilities, and women's in particular, is the just way to stabilize a country's population. Caught in the complex web of moral, ethical and social discussions, policy makers & citizens need to have a better understanding of the relation between population growth and well-being of the individuals. Coercive methods as a state policy for population control has most of the times been unsuccessful in democratic countries like India and has fetched public unrest. They also raise the issues of human rights and individual freedom. Coercion as a state policy has, however, succeeded in China (One Child Norm Rule). However, adopting the rights-based approach, I have tried to establish this relation in case of various regions of the globe. This paper addresses the issue of the trends and levels of fertility in various Regions of the World, as classified by WHO . Countries with fertility around or below the replacement level i.e. 2.1 currently hold over 40% of the world's people. Some of the regions like Africa and certain regions in Asia still have very high level of fertility. However, the factors contributing to the fertility are differently related in different regions. The paper has examined various cross-country data of 117 countries around the globe and has tried to identify the factors responsible for variations in fertility in different regions. The paper then attempts to identify the relevant policy areas to be addressed by the respective governments of the countries as per their national goals and population policies. However, before we consider the outcome of the data and analyze them, let us consider two basic questions. (1) Why is fertility declining in the developing world? (2) And why do some countries now have below replacement fertility? One of the major reasons for decline in fertility is the mortality decline at birth. The Summary Output of the correlation between Total Fertility Rate and Infant mortality is reproduced below. F 0.044217116 Regression Statistics T-critical 12.70620473 Multiple R 0.858068213 R Square 0.736281059 Adjusted R Square 0.73400762 Standard Error 0.831341089 Observations 118 ANOVA df SS MS F Regression 1 223.830253 223.830253 323.8622239 Residual 116 80.17084868 0.691128006 Total 117 304.0011017 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 1.57292125 0.119862012 13.12276692 1.13203E-24 Infant Mortality 0.036774037 0.002043437 17.99617248 2.29161E-35 There exists a strong correlation between infant mortality and TFR. The R-squared value is as high as 0.736. In other words, 73.6% of decline in fertility is explained by decline in infant mortality rate. The t-stat for Infant mortality 17.996 is well above the t-critical value i.e. 12.706. Hence, the relation is very significant. Moreover, the value of 'F' is very much higher than the FDIST value calculated above. Hence, the possibility of a higher F value (i.e. 223.83) by chance is negligible. Although declining infant mortality is one of the major factors responsible for decline in the TFR (Total Fertility Rate), another important factor affecting TFR appears to be the increase in the life expectancy at birth. The correlation of these two factors with TFR for 118 countries is as follows. Regression Statistics F 0.005936429 Multiple R 0.86310235 t-critical 4.30265273 R Square 0.74494567 Adjusted R Square 0.74050994 Standard Error 0.82111694 F Observations 118 167.9421613 ANOVA df SS MS Regression 2 226.4643036 113.2321518 Residual 115 77.53679813 0.674233027 Total 117 304.0011017 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 3.43748058 0.950741713 3.61557775 Life Exp.(F) -0.0232654 0.011770755 -1.976546526 Infant Mortality 0.0300313 0.003963711 7.576562297 Here we can observe that these two factors taken together explain the 74.5% of the decline in fertility across the globe. However, the comparison of t-critical values with actual t-values shows that increase in life expectancy is not as significant as the decline in infant mortality is. This is because the infant mortality and life expectancy at birth are not completely independent of each other. However, a negative sign before the correlation coefficient of life expectancy suggests that TFR decreases when life expectancy improves. Confronted with a major fall in the death rates, no society can remain with a TFR of 5 or 6 live births for more than a few decades. Because more & more cohorts enter into working age group, which has a depressing effect on wages, no society desires a fall in quality of life by maintaining high rate of fertility. They may not accept the effect of decline in mortality rate as the cause for decline in fertility; they argue that they cannot maintain bigger families. However, it will be a fallacy to believe that decline in infant mortality rate alone is the cause for decline in fertility, although it remains the remote causal force behind all fertility declines. Many factors -social, cultural, economic-influence timing and speed of the fertility decline response in particular populations. The answer to the second question is that because of fertility decline, women increasingly started behaving like men i.e. in places where fertility is low, and life expectancy at birth is high, women are not confined to rearing children only. They are employed and participate equally in economic activities. The gender differentiation, as claimed by Dyson (2001), is blurred in the low fertility societies. Education has a very vital role to play once the fertility decline is set-in. We can observe that literacy is among the major causes for steeper decline in fertility rates and hence in some parts of the world the fertility has been pushed below the replacement level. Another result of lowering fertility is weakening of the institution of marriage in some of those societies. Hence, there are huge cultural differences across the different regions of the globe, as we will examine below in the paragraphs that follow. Regression Statistics F -chance 0.000807553 Multiple R 0.88890617 t-stat 3.182446305 R Square 0.79015419 Adjusted R Square 0.78463193 Standard Error 0.74805806 Observations 118 ANOVA df SS MS F Regression 3 240.2077433 80.06924775 143.085338 Residual 114 63.79335844 0.559590864 Total 117 304.0011017 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 3.87811429 0.870701114 4.454013242 1.9779E-05 Illiteracy(F) 0.02697635 0.005443407 4.955784499 2.5267E-06 Life Exp.(F) -0.0267386 0.010746329 -2.488159939 0.01428629 Infant Mortality 0.01631402 0.004549842 3.58562403 0.00049639 It can be seen from the above data that the rate of female literacy is highly and significantly correlated with decline in fertility. If we compare actual t-values with t-critical, we can observe that female literacy plays a more significant role in decline in fertility. Hence, the societies where the fertility levels are below the replacement level or where the decrease in fertility has been faster, both the factors viz. decrease in infant mortality and increase in female literacy have played the highest role. In advanced societies, women have become more equal to men than in the societies, which have lagged behind in one of the two factors. For example, in many South Asian countries, the female illiteracy has not come down substantially but they have seen reduced infant mortality, continue to have higher fertility rates. Hence, 'Female Literacy' is another very important factor affecting overall decline in the rate of fertility in many countries. Education of females gives an additional tool in the hands of females in making reproductive decisions. However, in many male-dominated societies, even now, the decision regarding the size of family is in the hands of the male members of the societies. Nevertheless, mortality decline and spread of education among females are not the only factors, which are responsible for decline in fertility. There are many other factors like reproductive health facilities available in the country (which depends to some extent on per capita expenditure on health), number of trained health workers available at village levels, nurses per 10,000 of population, percentage of females married in the age-group 15 to 19 years of age, maternal mortality etc. We will examine the effect of these factors on the TFR of the world as a whole (118 countries in the sample in the present study) and then we will examine which factors dominate in various regions of the world classified as per WHO classification. The classification of countries by WHO is based on the Global Disease Burden (GDB) regional classification. In this paper, the same classification is being followed & hence certain countries located in a particular continent may fall in a different WHO region, which may sometimes appear illogical. However, as the analysis made in the paper relates to demographics and health, the WHO classification of countries has been followed.

Tags: demographics variation TFR literacy

More papers on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate"

1. Paper #059791 :: Japan's Fertility Rate Problem ( 1,699 words; 8 sources; MLA )
2. Paper #098232 :: Religion as a Determinant in Fertility ( 4,777 words; 16 sources; MLA )
3. Paper #002417 :: How Do You Rate the Rating Enforcers? ( 2,025 words; 11 sources; )
4. Paper #069292 :: Fertility in Third World Countries ( 1,380 words; 6 sources; APA )
5. Paper #034324 :: Capitalism and Fertility ( 1,150 words; 1 source; )

About AcaDemon

We have thousands of high-quality term papers, research papers, essays, book reports and dissertations on every topic. At AcaDemon, you can download those term papers to help you write yours! You can be sure that the term paper, essay, book report or research paper, you download are top-quality, competitively priced and high-level work.

Look for more research papers, essays and book reports on Determinants of Total Fertility Rate

This Free Term Paper Abstract is a part of our Term Paper Library. Here you can purchase research papers, examples of essays, academic dissertations, articles, notes, analytical papers, book reports, stories and poems. We have thousands of persuasive, point-of-view, narrative, critical, compare and contrast and other types of essays in our Library. You can also find here Term papers on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Essays on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Research papers on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Student papers on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Book reports on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Dissertation on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Thesis on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Summary of paper on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate", Articles written on "Determinants of Total Fertility Rate".